Week In Review
First Things First: Beager called me out that McCain, in fact, didn't even bother to mention the middle-class in the last debate. Guess he cares more about Cindy's wealth being "redistributed" to Joe The Plumber. Or something.
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It's Friday! Let's take a look at what the campaigns dumped into the press heading into the weekend....
Oh! Look at that. Cindy McCain made over $6 Million in 2007. AND she's "always" been proud of her country. What more could you want in a woman?
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The final debate happened last Wednesday -- watched slightly more than Debate 1, and notably less than Debate 2. Still, the first 30 minutes or so were probably McCain's strongest. He got in the amusing zinger about President Bush, and hammered Obama on taxes. For a while, it was looking like the Arizona Senator could stall Obama's rise in the polls and maybe turn the favor back in his own direction.
A blog I was reading today (I honestly can't remember which one) was discussing what ended up happeneing in the debate, however. Obama, with every punch McCain threw, remain unfazed. He had this stoic look, this unbreakable confidence, and a seemingly unhuman ability to deflect whatever McCain said right off of him.
This, of course, got McCain even more irritated, as was evident by his wading into the topics of Ayers and how the "health of the woman" is just a phrase the pro-abortion movement uses. This, along with the entire discourse on health care, was probably McCain's worst part of the debate, and it was all downhill from there.
Obama's ability to be unfazed isn't a complete wall --- he's still vulnerable, and can definitely be attacked successfully. But he refuses to show weakness in a debate, which is incredible. And it's probably what allowed him to "win" all three debates, despite a good showing from McCain last Wednesday.
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The tracking polls this week (Rasmussen, Gallup, Hotline, Battleground, and the new TIPP/IDB) have been showing some positive movement for McCain all week, and a bit of a stalling from Obama around a 5-7 point lead. The debate might halt movement for McCain, based off all the polls showing Obama decisively did a better job, according to independents or undecided voters.
State polling is still showing a great map for the Obama team -- Colorado seems to decisively be in the Obama column for the time being, with Florida and Missouri now definite tossups, according to recent polls.
McCain's and Palin's schedule for the next week also doesn't look good if you're voting for the Republican. He's almost entirely on defense, and when you cople it with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) pulling out of Michigan, New Mexico, and Wisconsin, there aren't many blue states left for McCain to keep attacking.
Let's analyze further:
There are two Bush states that seem to be firmly in Obama's column right now: Iowa (7 EV) and New Mexico (4 EV). If we add Colorado, that's a total of 20 EVs from Red States that will likely go to Obama on election night.
McCain only has three realistic states to win right now went to Kerry: Maine (4 EV), New Hampshire (4 EV) and Pennsylvania.
Multiple polls over the last week have shown Obama carrying a double-digit lead -- anywhere between 11 and 15 points. That's huge. But Obama, Biden, and even the Clintons spent time in Philadelphia stumping for him all last Saturday. That makes me believe that there is something in Obama's internal polling that shows weakness. One theory is that they've come up with their own way to measure a potential "Bradley Effect," or are trying out "worst case scenarios" for Pennsylvania turnout.
Another possibility is that their own internals show a big deficit in the "T" portion of the state, and in Pittsburgh/Scranton/Allentown/Erie. To overcome those deficits, they need to ramp up turnout in Philly in order to maintain a lead.
Another possibility is simply the recognition that Pennsylvania is the only Blue State which McCain has to possibly win. And they're making damn sure they don't lose it.
_____________________
SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY:
Colin Powell on Meet The Press, with Tom "Hack" Brokaw. Possible Obama Endorsement? Only one way to find out.
_________________________
It's Friday! Let's take a look at what the campaigns dumped into the press heading into the weekend....
Oh! Look at that. Cindy McCain made over $6 Million in 2007. AND she's "always" been proud of her country. What more could you want in a woman?
____________________________________
The final debate happened last Wednesday -- watched slightly more than Debate 1, and notably less than Debate 2. Still, the first 30 minutes or so were probably McCain's strongest. He got in the amusing zinger about President Bush, and hammered Obama on taxes. For a while, it was looking like the Arizona Senator could stall Obama's rise in the polls and maybe turn the favor back in his own direction.
A blog I was reading today (I honestly can't remember which one) was discussing what ended up happeneing in the debate, however. Obama, with every punch McCain threw, remain unfazed. He had this stoic look, this unbreakable confidence, and a seemingly unhuman ability to deflect whatever McCain said right off of him.
This, of course, got McCain even more irritated, as was evident by his wading into the topics of Ayers and how the "health of the woman" is just a phrase the pro-abortion movement uses. This, along with the entire discourse on health care, was probably McCain's worst part of the debate, and it was all downhill from there.
Obama's ability to be unfazed isn't a complete wall --- he's still vulnerable, and can definitely be attacked successfully. But he refuses to show weakness in a debate, which is incredible. And it's probably what allowed him to "win" all three debates, despite a good showing from McCain last Wednesday.
_____________________________________
The tracking polls this week (Rasmussen, Gallup, Hotline, Battleground, and the new TIPP/IDB) have been showing some positive movement for McCain all week, and a bit of a stalling from Obama around a 5-7 point lead. The debate might halt movement for McCain, based off all the polls showing Obama decisively did a better job, according to independents or undecided voters.
State polling is still showing a great map for the Obama team -- Colorado seems to decisively be in the Obama column for the time being, with Florida and Missouri now definite tossups, according to recent polls.
McCain's and Palin's schedule for the next week also doesn't look good if you're voting for the Republican. He's almost entirely on defense, and when you cople it with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) pulling out of Michigan, New Mexico, and Wisconsin, there aren't many blue states left for McCain to keep attacking.
Let's analyze further:
There are two Bush states that seem to be firmly in Obama's column right now: Iowa (7 EV) and New Mexico (4 EV). If we add Colorado, that's a total of 20 EVs from Red States that will likely go to Obama on election night.
McCain only has three realistic states to win right now went to Kerry: Maine (4 EV), New Hampshire (4 EV) and Pennsylvania.
Multiple polls over the last week have shown Obama carrying a double-digit lead -- anywhere between 11 and 15 points. That's huge. But Obama, Biden, and even the Clintons spent time in Philadelphia stumping for him all last Saturday. That makes me believe that there is something in Obama's internal polling that shows weakness. One theory is that they've come up with their own way to measure a potential "Bradley Effect," or are trying out "worst case scenarios" for Pennsylvania turnout.
Another possibility is that their own internals show a big deficit in the "T" portion of the state, and in Pittsburgh/Scranton/Allentown/Erie. To overcome those deficits, they need to ramp up turnout in Philly in order to maintain a lead.
Another possibility is simply the recognition that Pennsylvania is the only Blue State which McCain has to possibly win. And they're making damn sure they don't lose it.
_____________________
SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY:
Colin Powell on Meet The Press, with Tom "Hack" Brokaw. Possible Obama Endorsement? Only one way to find out.
Labels: debates, electoral college, polls
posted by Kevin at
5:25 PM
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