What To Look For (II)
The second Presidential debate tonight in Nashville, TN. Tom Brokaw has been reported to have not fully agreed to what the campaigns wanted – no follow-up questions. Knowing Brokaw’s tilt, he’ll probably throw in a few questions about Obama’s ties to radical terrorists.
The debate tonight will have a much lower viewership, I reckon. Number of people watching was lower than expected for the 1st, higher for the VP debates, and historically the numbers go down for the 2nd and 3rd debates. I anticipate a high number of people watching in the beginning, but turning it off relatively quickly. Whoever has a stronger performance early on I think will come off better in the eyes of a lot of people who tune in.
In regards to the content of the debate itself – that’s what this entry is about. The McCain campaign has stepped up attacks in recent stays – with McCain using the line “Who is the REAL Barack Obama?” and Sarah Palin using the line “palling around with terrorists.”
The media has not ignored this – there’s been constant attention paid to this (slight) change of attitude – negative to super negative – in McCain’s camp. I think tonight, the Arizona Senator will shift back to a more hopeful, reformer tone, with carefully placed attacks on Obama. I expect these attacks to be sharp, though. Biting, even. McCain knows what his options are right now, and he knows the path that has been decided on.
This isn’t to say Obama hasn’t been negative, as well. But I think we’re not used to seeing a Democrat actually counter-attack when it comes to these things. Kerry ignored the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth attacks, and look where it got him.
It’s also clear that McCain’s connections to the Keating 5 were brought up by Obama’s camp as retaliation to the Ayers thing. They seem willing to play the “guilt by association” game, believing that there are just as many skeletons for McCain as there is for Obama.
The debate will not change the current polling situation – McCain’s numbers will not shoot up in all the tracking polls after tonight barring a major gaffe, and vice versa for Obama.
Expect a cool, composed attitude from Obama – he’ll likely not be too negative unless provoked by McCain, or if the question calls for it. He’s leading in the polls, and he just wants to maintain his lead. His campaign will not be changing their strategy right now unless McCain starts to gain in the polls (and you better believe they’re watching the polls closely).
While I personally expect McCain to tone down the negativity tonight, he might not. He may just stick to the path he’s chosen, truly believing the only way for him to win (and this might be true) is to make people doubt Obama; make people question his “readiness” to lead just one last time, via his connections to Ayers, Wright, and “foreign donors” with Arabic names.
The debate tonight will have a much lower viewership, I reckon. Number of people watching was lower than expected for the 1st, higher for the VP debates, and historically the numbers go down for the 2nd and 3rd debates. I anticipate a high number of people watching in the beginning, but turning it off relatively quickly. Whoever has a stronger performance early on I think will come off better in the eyes of a lot of people who tune in.
In regards to the content of the debate itself – that’s what this entry is about. The McCain campaign has stepped up attacks in recent stays – with McCain using the line “Who is the REAL Barack Obama?” and Sarah Palin using the line “palling around with terrorists.”
The media has not ignored this – there’s been constant attention paid to this (slight) change of attitude – negative to super negative – in McCain’s camp. I think tonight, the Arizona Senator will shift back to a more hopeful, reformer tone, with carefully placed attacks on Obama. I expect these attacks to be sharp, though. Biting, even. McCain knows what his options are right now, and he knows the path that has been decided on.
This isn’t to say Obama hasn’t been negative, as well. But I think we’re not used to seeing a Democrat actually counter-attack when it comes to these things. Kerry ignored the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth attacks, and look where it got him.
It’s also clear that McCain’s connections to the Keating 5 were brought up by Obama’s camp as retaliation to the Ayers thing. They seem willing to play the “guilt by association” game, believing that there are just as many skeletons for McCain as there is for Obama.
The debate will not change the current polling situation – McCain’s numbers will not shoot up in all the tracking polls after tonight barring a major gaffe, and vice versa for Obama.
Expect a cool, composed attitude from Obama – he’ll likely not be too negative unless provoked by McCain, or if the question calls for it. He’s leading in the polls, and he just wants to maintain his lead. His campaign will not be changing their strategy right now unless McCain starts to gain in the polls (and you better believe they’re watching the polls closely).
While I personally expect McCain to tone down the negativity tonight, he might not. He may just stick to the path he’s chosen, truly believing the only way for him to win (and this might be true) is to make people doubt Obama; make people question his “readiness” to lead just one last time, via his connections to Ayers, Wright, and “foreign donors” with Arabic names.
posted by Kevin at
9:43 AM
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