slattery on politics

O Senator, My Senator

2008-12-07T09:39:00.000-08:00

My take on Hillary Clinton:

I was ultimately surprised by the selection of Senator Clinton to maybe the top cabinet post in Obama's new administration. I was even more surprised by the awful roll-out they had for her, where everyone new about it two weeks ahead of time. But since whatever Hillary Clinton does will probably not have a huge impact, we should all be paying attention to something much more important: Who New York's next Senator is.

I believe that upstate NY will not truly receive the attention it needs from its US Senators (god knows Schumer didn't do much for us, and Clinton even less) until someone who HAS upstate NY in their best interests is either appointed to or wins a seat.

Some folk say Byron Brown, current Mayor of Buffalo -- I say: "You're kidding, right?" Brown's tenure in Buffalo has been a disaster, with the Mayor having been caught politicizng things that shouldn't be politicized (the latest is hiring is city hall goons to knock off Harvey Garret from the WSNHS's board).

And contrary to popular belief, knocking down a bunch of shitty houses doesn't qualify you as a reformer. It just makes you someone who knocks down shitty houses.

Maybe it's the social worker in me, but until Buffalo does something to address the ROOT of the problem -- the fact that too much of this city is in deep poverty, or functionally illiterate, or unemployed -- until these things are taken on, it won't matter how many empty vacant lots occupy spots where drug deals used to take place in abandoned houses. It won't matter.

And Byron Brown hasn't done that. Therefore, he should have no place legislating on behalf of our great state, let alone governing our city.

Ideally, Brian Higgins, a true champion of Buffalo and WNY, would receive the appointment to Clinton's Senate seat. But it probably won't happen.

The Emerging Democratic Majority

2008-11-15T14:10:00.000-08:00

Here's something to ponder:

A lot of Republican party apologists have been discussing how 2008 is like 1992 (complete with Clinton Administration familiars running around the picture in regards to Obama), and how 2010 will be akin to the 1994 Republican landslide in terms of mid-terms, or at least on par with the Democrats in 2006, which helped longshots and previously unknown figures like Jim Webb and Jon Tester (Virginia and Montana, respectively) into the national spotlight.

But 2008 is not 1992 -- and while history may get repeated every now and then, 2010 will not be as favorable to the Republicans as some may believe. Here's why:

1) There is no strong Republican leadership a la Newt Gingrich

Republican leadership right now is not in shambles, but it is in a difficult situation, complete with a divided party in regards to what direction the GOP takes. John Boehner is facing a challenge for his post as Minority Leader -- and while it will likely fail, it indicates the divide that has risen all the way to the upper echelons of GOP leaders.

The big race though is for the chairmanship, where current chair Mike Duncan wants everyone to forget about the shitty job he's already done and give him another two years. Michael Steele, failed Lt. Gov, failed Senate candidate in Maryland, and current GOPAC Chairman is his biggest challenger right now. Some people are making a big deal right now cause he's one of the five black Republicans left in this nation, but I don't see that as a factor.

2) Barack Obama has heeded the mistakes Bill Clinton made in his first two years

Clinton was overly ambitious and a little too ideological before the 1994 mid-terms, which allowed Republicans to capitalize on his mistakes and make a mockery of the
administration. It is clear that Obama is already being much more careful about making sure to look bipartisan and take a bipartisan approach, even with the Democratic majorities in congress (In a way, Obama MUST do this due to the magnitude of the problems the new President will face).

3) Democrats will still hold an advantage in terms of the Senate seats which will be up for grabs in 2010

The Pennsylvania race is one example -- if Arlen Specter wins, it'll be another moderate Republican back to the senate that Obama actually has a chance to work with. If he loses the primary, this one becomes a potential Democratic pickup. No win situation here for GOP hardliners. 2004 Dem pickups like Ken Salazar in Colorado have high approval ratings, and are likely safe.

GOP held seats in Alaska (Murkowski) and Kentucky (Bunning, who narrowly scraped by last election) will likely be competitive -- we might see Palin attempt to run for Senate, and Bunning will probably retire making it an open seat).

North Carolina, a trending Democratic state, as well as Florida, have Republican
incumbents who may face tough challengers. Democrats like Russ Feingold and Patty Murray have enough of a cushion (both got 10+ point wins in 04) to probably be safe.

The GOP will almost certainly see some kind of gain in the House, but I see a filibuster proof Senate for President Obama in his final two terms. After everything is said and done, we will have either 58 or 59 Democratic Senate seats heading into '10.

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PREDICTION: Token Celebrity who runs for national in office in 2010...

1998: Jesse Ventura
2003: Ahnold Schwarzenegger
2008: Al Franken
2010: Donald Trump

Thought of the Day

2008-11-12T14:05:00.000-08:00

Western New Yorkers must REALLY be satisfied with the status quo --- Career politicians Stachowski, Ranzenhofer, and Volker were all re-elected to the State Senate.

Election Review!

2008-11-09T11:39:00.001-08:00

First off, let me point out that in the vast universe of polling out there --- one national tracking poll nailed it. That is, understandably, Rasmussen Reports, who called it at 52-46 on the day of the election. Spot on, Scott Ras.

Secondly, my own prediction --- I got Ohio wrong, where I thought that McCain was going to edge Obama by the narrowest of margins. My reason for this was that even when Obama was leading 6-8 points in the national polls, his Ohio margins just wern't getting up to those same numbers. He would be leading by 1 or 2 in Ohio, or it might be a dead tie the same day Gallup or Ras showed him leading by 6-10 points.

But Obama's ability to heavily turn out urban voters -- white and black -- put him over the top, and counteracted any significant strengths McCain had in rural areas. Barack Obama performed 9 points better among Urban white voters according to Pew Research, and it showed.

Like everyone else, I also got Indiana wrong. That was probably the biggest surprise of election night, in addition to the new official revelation that Obama has in fact, won Nebraska's second congressional district, earning him a single more electoral vote. This is fascinating because it points out an oddity in the American EV system, where Maine and Nebraska allocate their EVs by congressional district, rather than a winner-take-all that the other 48 states use. I hope all the data comes in soon so we can see what the EV count would have been had the entire nation used the congressional-district method. In 2000 and 2004, the result of the election wouldn't have been changed from using that method.

I was satisfied with my other predictions -- I got Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina correct. Nevada was a big surprise to me -- simply because the margin of victory, which many polling companies showed was a single digit race, ended up being a 13-point landslide for Barack. Wonder what happened in the polling there.

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Regarding local races, I'll be the first to wipe the egg of my face in regards to the NY-26 congressional race. After two close ones with Jack Davis and Tom Reynolds, I was expecting the anti-Republican sentiment and Kryzan's strong ability to close (as shown in the primary) to evolve itself into a Democratic victory. But that's not what we saw -- instead, Chris Lee won comfortably. If anything, this goes to show that either Kryzan was an extremely unappealing candidate, or that NY-26 is more conservative than originally thought.

I nailed the Stachowski-Delano race --- WNY made a good choice putting in someone who actually understands the issues and will be a good Finance Committee chairman.

Unfortuantely, Konst went down to Volker, and Mesi, who at least had a better grasp of the issues than Delano, lost a close election to Ranzenhofer.

Brian Higgins continues to be an asset to Buffalo, and that was recognized with his massive victory against Humiston.

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Under a Barack Obama presidency, we have the opportunity to see a real change in government. Like any politician, we need to hold President-Elect Obama accountable in increasing government transparency, getting rid of the Bush Executive Orders that are certain to come in his final months, and beginning the process to end the Iraq War.

As for this blog, I will continue discussing national and local politics, most likely with more emphasis on the latter as the campaign season has ended. But I will be keeping up to date with everything Obama does, and giving you the straight-talk as to how I see things as the months go by.

If you have anything you want to yell at me about, send me an email: WBNYSLATTERY at GMAIL dot com.

The Final Update

2008-11-03T15:29:00.000-08:00

A Final Update / What To Look For

In this final update, I'll make my predictions for Election Day tomorrow, in addition to some final observations and personal analysis of how the race is folding up.

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Right-wing pundits and media members complain, with good reason, that the media has already called this race for Obama. And looking at the coverage, they pretty much have. The media reports on the polls, and the polls are overwhelmingly in favor of Obama. Could the polls be wrong? Possibly. But ARE they wrong? Probably not.

Obama's decisively winning the polls in enough states that put his Electoral Vote (EV) total over 270 --- the amount needed to win the nomination. The remaining 100 or so EVs up for grabs in states like Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Montana(!!!), Nevada, and North Carolina are really all for show if the polls aren't lying right now.

There is but one way John McCain can win -- and that is if his overall national support is much higher than the polls are saying -- if there really is a mass number of "undecided" voters that are secretly preferring McCain, or if the fabled "Bradley Effect" will be real come the evening of November 4th.

A trend like this in favor of McCain will not just be in Pennsylvania or Florida, but across the entire nation. Here's how you'll be able to tell -- before your friends -- that we might be in for a long election night:

6:00 PM - Indiana is decisively called for McCain as soon as the polls close, or if the state is called for McCain within 15-20 minutes. The polls in Indiana have narrowed considerably, and while I still expect McCain to win, I expect it to be a victory under 5 points, which means the state wouldn't be called for a while.

7:00 PM - Virginia wil undoubtedly be too close to call. The state won't be called for a long time, but if it DOES get called for McCain within an hour or so, it might not be a good sign for Obama.

7:00 PM - New Hampshire. If New Hampshire is too close to call after an hour, or if McCain has a lead in the state, then it is likely Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida all either be too close to call, or leaning towards McCain.

All this in the first 2 hours of election coverage, from 6 to 8 PM EST. I am skeptical something like this will happen. Very skeptical. I believe the media will be afraid to call the battleground states too early, and will err on the side of caution as voting will not be finished on the West Coast (battlegrounds like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico). The media does NOT want to be seen as spoiling this election like 2000. Unless a state can be DECISIVELY called for one candidate, expect stations to let votes get counted for a couple hours in each state.

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Regarding strategy, I don't think there was much McCain could have done. He's thrown the kitchen sink, and the local radio right-wing nutballs are in full-scale panic mode. This afternoon I was mostly listening to WNED and OnPoint, but I tuned into hear WBEN's own Sandy "Bigoted Conspiracy Theorist" Beach, and no later than 10 seconds into listening did I hear the Obama / Hitler comparisons. Must be mandatory on WBEN.

I think about a week ago is when most voters finally made up their minds, or at least started leaning towards one candidate or the other --- no October Surprise (ILLEGAL OBAMA AUNT LIVING IN SECTION 8 HOUSING?) caused enough headlines to scare away uncommitted voters from Obama's column.

I also conclude that early voting has been a success for the Obama campaign. African Americans and younger voters have turned out in higher numbers than 2004, and while it doesn't predict election day trends, it's a good sign. Though I expect some states (North Carolina, for example) to have a Republican lean on actual Nov 4th voting.

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LOCAL RACES

The local races have been interesting to watch in the final week of campaigning --
Stachowski's campaign went from practically invisible to finally doing some GOTV efforts, visibility in concentrated urban areas (a LOT of Stachowski support on Buffalo's West Side), and the media finally digging into the fact that Dennis "Hambeast" Delano has never actually taken a stance on any issue, in addition to refusing to debate. I predict Stachowski narrowly retains his State Senate seat -- by a 5 point margin or less.

Unfortunately, I think Dale "Strom Thurmond of the NY GOP" Volker will retain his seat against Kathy Konst, though Konst may outperform in terms of the vote count. I don't think I've seen a more dismally run campaign than Konst in my entire tenure of living in Buffalo.

I think the Joe Mesi / Mike Ranzenhofer matchup is really a tossup, but I give the edge of Mikey based off a Siena College poll released yesterday, which showed Ranz leading by 3 points. Mesi has run a strong campaign, and a severe anti-Republican sentiment this year may end up throwing Ranz out of the NY Legislature. I'd bet on the Republican in this race, but Mesi may very well provide an upset.

Another term of Sam Hoyt is all but guaranteed. Good! I think.

The NY-26 race between Kryzan and Lee is coming to an end, and I give a decisive edge to Alice "Love Canal" Kryzan in this one. I was a Powers volunteer during the primaries, so I was a little lukewarm towards Alice at the beginning, but she's proven herself to be a competent campaigner, a deepyl intellectual person who understands the nuances of policy, and a true, unashamed liberal. Chris Lee will NOT be up late waiting for results in this one -- Kryzan wins easily.

In Ny-27, my congressional district, Brian Higgins should thoroughly romp Brett "Tanning Is Good 4 U" Humiston. The only question is who will Higgins select as his campaign manager when he takes over for Schumer's Senate seat? (hey, I can dream, right?)

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And finally --- my Presidential Electoral Map for tomorrow night. When it's all said and done, this is what I think it will look like (disclaimer: I will likely be dead wrong, but I reserve the right to brag if I do get it right).

OBAMA: 334
MCCAIN: 204

Fountry Cirst

2008-10-30T15:05:00.000-07:00

We're under one week to go --- aaannnddd not much has changed since last week.

The new line from the pundits is that "THE RACE IS TIGHTENING." Not really. Instead of an 8 point lead, we might have a 5-6 point lead on our hands, but Barack Obama hasn't lost any support. The national tracking polls have shown a slight rise for McCain, which, let's face

it, was pretty much inevitable when McCain was polling between 42 and 44 percent for the past seven months.

Nate Silver pointed out recently that the IBD/TIPP polling company -- their 18-29 year-old subsample was suspicious -- in that one day, the poll showed that age group choosing John McCain over Barack Obama by a 75-25 margin. Hmmm. Simple margin of error is not enough to cause that kind of a swing, so there had to be something wrong with their methodology.

Today, IBD/TIPP has --- uh, 'corrected' their process, I suppose. Here's a statement from the company itself:

"Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, told me he was equally surprised by the results, saying the widespread perception that Obama is leading by a large margin in that group “is my perception, too.” He blamed the result on a small sample size. Each daily tracking poll includes about 1,000 interviews spread over the prior five days; each day a new set of survey respondents is added and the oldest set is discarded.

Ideally, Mayur would like to have 75 of all those respondents fall into the youngest age range. Some pollsters would have preferred more; this age group makes up 13% of the adult population, though its voting rate historically has been lower than average. His sample fell far short even of his lower goal, typically including just 25 to 30 respondents from age 18 to 24 — meaning just five or six new interviews with these young voters were being conducted each day. “We are not able to get to speak to as many as we would like to in that group,” he said.

He blamed that on several factors. For one thing, nearly one-third of adults in that age range lack landline phones, and Mayur’s pollsters don’t dial cellphones. (He points out that when calling cellphones, the chance that the person who picks up lacks a landline and is in the relevant age range is quite low.) Furthermore, among those who do live in households with landlines, young people may be away at school or in the military, Mayur said.

This small sample size at first didn’t trouble Mayur, as Obama led among these voters in the first three tracking polls. But when the results started to break McCain’s way as suddenly and dramatically as they did, Mayur began to question his own methodology. On the day McCain’s lead widened in this group to 52 points, Mayur added a footnote to the 18-to-24-year-old group: “Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size.” He says he didn’t add a similar one to the Jewish subgroup, with just half the sample size as the young voters, because the Jews in his sample consistently stated a preference for Obama, as he expected."

The bigger problem is his solution:

"This week Mayur took two steps to expand the sample size of young voters. His pollsters are asking those who answer the phone to put the youngest member of the household on. They are also dialing households expected to have young voters, found by cross-listing white-pages listings with drivers’ registration data. “We have always preferred using random-digit dialing sample,” Mayur said. “I am adapting to this new challenge with these modified tactics.” In the two polls since the change, the trend has reversed itself: Obama now leads by double digits. "

The first step is fine, but its flaw is that it's not a random person under 30, it's just the youngest in the household. If I live in a home with two folks under 30, it's not random. You might think this is minor, but it matters. Soooo --- we can conclude the guy's sampling was suspiciously low on voters aged 18-29, his new weighting is still lower than the youth vote will probably be, he didn't technically fix his sample size at all.

And the worst of all, he didn't fix anything until a suspicous sample forced him to. And the way he fixed it is error-ridden and un-transparent. More new problems could emerge from it, and it certainly doesn't address whatever sampling error caused the problem in the first place.

Death by a thousand papercuts. Don't look at the IBD/TIPP poll anymore.

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Barack Obama had a nice soft-lens, inoffensive 30 minute infomercial tonight that has little (probably zero) potential for backlash that was clearly aimed at uncommitted voters who were already leaning towards Obama. The hardliners against Obama are pretty much set in stone -- they're feeding off every possible attack they can get on the guy.

Today, WBEN Right-Wing Demagogue Tom Bauerle just went off -- calling Obama a--- and I quote ---- "Radical Kenyan-Born Marxist." He then proceeded to equate Obama and his followers to HITLER. Yes, he went there.

My point is -- the constant attacks from the right-wing, from Palin and McCain about Obama's associations, and all of the Republican surrogates calling Obama a Marxist -- these are not attacks that can make undecided and independent voters more likely to vote for McCain. They are attacks that will do nothing but fire up the anti-Obama base, which isn't enough to carry the election.

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Finally, regarding undecided voters waiting until the last few days: McCain will likely win this group, but not by any significant margin like 2 to 1. At best, McCain could win this group 60-40, and gain 2 points on election day. But among late deciders, history shows that they rarely go to one candidate by any huge margin.

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More to come this weekend. Election day on Tuesday -- if you live in a state which allows early voting, I highly recommend doing it. Waiting 2 hours in line to vote is better than waiting 5.

2008-10-24T07:24:00.000-07:00

Politico has a fascinating article up right now that any Obama supporter worrying about getting complacent should NOT read. It’s called “Blame Game: GOP forms circular firing squad,” and it gives an inside look to what McCain insiders, campaign workers, and several high profile GOP strategists are saying – that McCain is not looking good for the Arizonan.

Even the campaign itself, which is supposed to be upbeat and confident about their ability to win, sounds nearly defeated in this statement:

“We have a real chance in Pennsylvania. We are in trouble in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. We have lost Iowa and New Mexico. We are OK in Missouri, Ohio and Florida. Our voter intensity is good and we can match their buy dollar for dollar starting today till the election. It’s a long shot but it’s worth fighting for.”

I honestly don’t understand the reasoning behind saying that they have a “real chance” in Pennsylvania. By all accounts, they’re down 7-8 points in the Keystone State, and have a better chance at picking off Colorado or Virginia. The campaign also seems to assume that they’ll win North Carolina (likely, but not set in stone by any means).

It’s a campaign where the lack of any coherent long term strategy is starting to become apparent – McCain’s got nothing. It’s been a series of tactics to win media cycles that have proven fruitless. More than anything else, he’s hoping to either get a hold of some kind of narrative which will allow every GOP surrogate and campaign official to be on message and attack Obama relentlessly (Remember how the Democrats seized upon McCain’s housing gaffe, where he couldn’t remember the number of mansions he owns? That’s what his campaign needs, only against Obama).

But we likely won’t see that materialize – instead, we have GOP talking points ranging from charges of socialism to associations with former 60’s radicals. The best route that is left for Republicans to take is to hold out an audacity of hope that Obama’s supporters will not turn out heavily on election day, and that there will be some kind of “Bradley Effect” that will put an extra point or 2 on McCain’s totals.

Early Voting

2008-10-23T08:46:00.000-07:00

With under two weeks to go until election day, not everyone has realized that voting has actually already begun in some states – Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, and Ohio – to name a few. Obama is taking advantage of incredible enthusiasm among the African-American community, banking large vote totals in swing states.

Some states keep track of demographics among early voters – and update the statistics in real time. In Georgia, for example, the African-American vote is up nearly 10% as a vote total when compared to 2004. Obviously, this will go down on November 4th, but if that vote percentage goes up even just five points, to around 30-31%, Obama has a good chance of carrying the state on election day.

The extreme difficulty that pollsters have this election year is predicting how voting blocs will turn out. No one is arguing that turnout among African-Americans will be at a record high -- but how increased will the percentage actually be? It’s a guess, and no one will officially know until Election Day.

Early voting is NOT a good measure on how to predict the outcome on the 4th – the enthusiasm gap among Democrats and Republicans has been proven based on the data provided by states, but what isn’t clear is whether that enthusiasm will carry over to the way when approximately 2/3 of the country will cast ballots.

Also, this might be a reason why McCain is attacking Pennsylvania. The state has no early voting, and thus if Obama starts to take a hit before November 4th -- part of his vote total will be intact, due to early voting. In Pennsylvania, however, any negative press for Obama leading up to 11/4 will be shown in the final vote total -- and might give McCain a shot at taking the 21 Electoral Votes.

13 Days and 14 Nights

2008-10-21T17:51:00.000-07:00

As of this post, until Election Day on November 4th.

The mainstream media has done everything they possibly can to keep this a "horse race," but the numbers continue to favor Obama, and don't appear to be slowing down. It's only a matter of days before John McCain says "Reverend Wright Hates America."

And as the days go on, and the poll numbers continue to show Barack Obama competitive in Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri -- the McCain campaign continues to be at a severe monetary disadvantage -- and his options are limited.

We've already confirmed that McCain is pulling some of his resources in New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Colorado looks bad for Senator Maverick, as well. And now, even his campaign has announced their bold, possibly final attack plan, electoral-vote wise: Win Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania is a blue state which Kerry won by a few points in 2004. Polls right now show Obama leading by double digits -- we haven't seen a poll from any of the big pollsters in 4-5 days from Pennsylvania, but I can imagine a new one wouldn't show much difference.

The state itself is worth 21 EVs -- a valuable win for McCain.

Let's take a look at this map:

Even under this map, Barack Obama wins the election, with 273 EVs. The remaining states are all considered "toss ups."

The strategy to take away Penn from Obama is a gamble -- Even if McCain manages to sneak away the 21 EVs, Obama could win with victories in Virginia and Nevada. Or Missouri and Virginia. Or Ohio. Or Florida.

What John McCain is banking his entire campaign on is holding every critical Bush state. These include:

*Ohio
*Florida
*Indiana
*North Carolina
*Virginia
*Nevada

The gamble that McCain is taking on this strategy is huge -- his campaign is outmatched in North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. The polls are razor thin in states that Hillary Clinton supporters had mocked his ability to carry. And Pennsylvania? The 538.com composite right now shows the state as Obama +9.7 -- a safe margin for victory.

By the weekend, we'll have a very clear idea of whether or not this move by McCain is his final strategy.

The Race For 60

2008-10-18T08:46:00.000-07:00

As the election winds down, we are starting to see more competitive senate races throughout the US: Kentuckty's Bruce Lunsford is starting to look like a long shot upset over Mitch McConnell (don't forget how Jim Bunning nearly and unexpectedly lost his senate seat four years ago), Saxby Chambliss might go down against Georgia's Jim Martin, and former Mississippi Gov Ronnie Musgrove might -- just might -- take down interim Republican Senator Roger Wicker.

On the "safe Democratic pickup" side, Rep. Tom Udall in New Mexico just released a very powerful ad:

And Ronnie Musgrove, with one of my favorite ads from this election cycle:

Also, a quote from a Florida McCain interview:

Look, this is a tough decision that we made about Sarah Palin.

Wait, what?

Week In Review

2008-10-17T17:25:00.001-07:00

First Things First: Beager called me out that McCain, in fact, didn't even bother to mention the middle-class in the last debate. Guess he cares more about Cindy's wealth being "redistributed" to Joe The Plumber. Or something.

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It's Friday! Let's take a look at what the campaigns dumped into the press heading into the weekend....

Oh! Look at that. Cindy McCain made over $6 Million in 2007. AND she's "always" been proud of her country. What more could you want in a woman?

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The final debate happened last Wednesday -- watched slightly more than Debate 1, and notably less than Debate 2. Still, the first 30 minutes or so were probably McCain's strongest. He got in the amusing zinger about President Bush, and hammered Obama on taxes. For a while, it was looking like the Arizona Senator could stall Obama's rise in the polls and maybe turn the favor back in his own direction.

A blog I was reading today (I honestly can't remember which one) was discussing what ended up happeneing in the debate, however. Obama, with every punch McCain threw, remain unfazed. He had this stoic look, this unbreakable confidence, and a seemingly unhuman ability to deflect whatever McCain said right off of him.

This, of course, got McCain even more irritated, as was evident by his wading into the topics of Ayers and how the "health of the woman" is just a phrase the pro-abortion movement uses. This, along with the entire discourse on health care, was probably McCain's worst part of the debate, and it was all downhill from there.

Obama's ability to be unfazed isn't a complete wall --- he's still vulnerable, and can definitely be attacked successfully. But he refuses to show weakness in a debate, which is incredible. And it's probably what allowed him to "win" all three debates, despite a good showing from McCain last Wednesday.

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The tracking polls this week (Rasmussen, Gallup, Hotline, Battleground, and the new TIPP/IDB) have been showing some positive movement for McCain all week, and a bit of a stalling from Obama around a 5-7 point lead. The debate might halt movement for McCain, based off all the polls showing Obama decisively did a better job, according to independents or undecided voters.

State polling is still showing a great map for the Obama team -- Colorado seems to decisively be in the Obama column for the time being, with Florida and Missouri now definite tossups, according to recent polls.

McCain's and Palin's schedule for the next week also doesn't look good if you're voting for the Republican. He's almost entirely on defense, and when you cople it with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) pulling out of Michigan, New Mexico, and Wisconsin, there aren't many blue states left for McCain to keep attacking.

Let's analyze further:

There are two Bush states that seem to be firmly in Obama's column right now: Iowa (7 EV) and New Mexico (4 EV). If we add Colorado, that's a total of 20 EVs from Red States that will likely go to Obama on election night.

McCain only has three realistic states to win right now went to Kerry: Maine (4 EV), New Hampshire (4 EV) and Pennsylvania.

Multiple polls over the last week have shown Obama carrying a double-digit lead -- anywhere between 11 and 15 points. That's huge. But Obama, Biden, and even the Clintons spent time in Philadelphia stumping for him all last Saturday. That makes me believe that there is something in Obama's internal polling that shows weakness. One theory is that they've come up with their own way to measure a potential "Bradley Effect," or are trying out "worst case scenarios" for Pennsylvania turnout.

Another possibility is that their own internals show a big deficit in the "T" portion of the state, and in Pittsburgh/Scranton/Allentown/Erie. To overcome those deficits, they need to ramp up turnout in Philly in order to maintain a lead.

Another possibility is simply the recognition that Pennsylvania is the only Blue State which McCain has to possibly win. And they're making damn sure they don't lose it.

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SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY:

Colin Powell on Meet The Press, with Tom "Hack" Brokaw. Possible Obama Endorsement? Only one way to find out.

Something I've Noticed

2008-10-15T09:53:00.000-07:00

Mike Allen on Politico has an article up today where he talks about yet another factor which continues to fuel an internal divide within McCain's camp; (sound familiar?) The use of Reverend Wright in the last few weeks.

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"John McCain is at odds with many of his top advisers over launching a renewed attack on Barack Obama's ties to his long-time pastor and mentor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, according to campaign sources.

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and several top campaign officials see a sharp attack on Wright as the best — and perhaps last — chance to rattle Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill. ) and force voters to rethink their support of him. But McCain continues to overrule them, fearing a Wright attack would smack of desperation and racism, the officials said.

With McCain unlikely to budge, GOP officials are hoping groups outside of the campaign will finance an ad attack on Obama-Wright ties. It is unclear if any conservative group has the cash to bankroll a serious effort, however."

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The reluctance of McCain to push Rev. Wright onto uncommitted voters doesn't just show the division between what his campaign is telling him and what he believes, it also shows that it's quite possible that McCain doesn't even believe what his own campaign is saying -- that his words: "Who is the REAL Barack Obama?" didn't come from him, but rather Steve Schmidt, the Karl Rove protege. That perhaps this is his only chance for victory.

The problem with using Rev. Wright is that when the scandal came out, McCain was the only GOP hopeful besides Paul to denounce all the vicious attacks that stemmed from it -- probably because McCain is not truly a part of the Evangelical wing of the party. It doesn't take a genius to see that McCain would not honestly believe what he's saying if Rev. Wright comes to the forefront.

However, considering how many principles McCain has already sacrificed during this election, it wouldn't be a stretch to see him break on this issue, and end up giving the green light.

I've previously written on why, disregarding McCain's own hesitance, attacking on Wright would probably not work anyway. But even setting that aside, we are left watching two mindsets: One which belongs to the Arizona Senator himself, and one to his advisers. And it's not pretty.

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UPDATE: McCain has said in a radio interview the other day that he "expects" to bring up Ayers in the debate tonight. If he does, that will be a serious indicator of the direction McCain intends to take his campaign. If he doesn't, he either doesn't have the guts to do it to Obama's face, or he wants to start "focusing on the issues."

On Local Politics

2008-10-14T09:43:00.000-07:00

Buffalo Pundit points out some of the critical local state senate races:

Kathy Konst, not surprisingly, is trailing Senator-For-Life Dale Volker 50-33, according to a Buffalo News poll. If it's to be believed, then I can understand why the numbers are like that. A lot of people may be unsatisfied with Volker, but the guy has name recognition, no outright hatred towards him like there was for Sam Hoyt, and a weak challenger with poor funding who cruised to a primary victory. Konst' campaign seems disorganized, inept at fundraising, and with no clear direction. The race may be closer in reality, but I expect Volker to win by at least a 10-point margin on November 4th.

For Bill Stachowski in the 58th, he is supposedly trailing local Super-Detective Dennis Delano, who could have just as easily been on A&E's "The First 48" rather than running for State Senate. I'm not sure if I believe this poll -- localized polls in congressional districts and the such are difficult to nail down. And University polls should be taken with a grain of salt.

I do not doubt, however, that Stachowski is in for a close race. I think a lot of Democratic voters will ultimately come home to the Senator, and any heavy turnout for Barack Obama from voters that would have otherwise not come out this election cycle will only help Democrats, as they will likely vote straight-ticket Democratic.

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The other big question of this election cycle is that what will happen to upstate NY if the Democrats take control of the State Senate? I hardly believe that New York Republicans have been the saviors of everywhere north of the NYC area, but I also don't think the Democrats controlling NY's entire government would be a disaster. Paterson has proven to be a moderate, effective governor so far.

That said, some kind of balance of power within the legislature may be good. If the balance of power in the Senate does come down to WNY, I think the Republicans keep it. Volker over Konst, GOP retains. Mesi over Ranzenhofer, Dem pickup. Delano over Stachowski, and GOP maintains a 1-seat advantage.

Tactic vs Strategy

2008-10-12T09:29:00.000-07:00

The past several days has seen the lack of any real groundbreaking news other than some of the McCain-Palin rallies starting to turn a little bit -- aggressive. Both parts of the Republican ticket have clearly been stoking the fires underneath their supporters via their rhetoric.

Some would say it's unfair to attribute what a few hate-filled supporters back to McCain, but when all the man does is lightly repudiate suggestions that Obama's some kind of evil Arab from questioners at his town halls, he pretty much opens himself up to attack. And it was also John McCain who started this silly game of "Guilt By Association."

I have said previously that I expect the presidential race to get closer by November 4th. I stick by these remarks, as I think many of the remaining "undecided" voters will break for McCain, depending on the state. Ultimately, I think Obama will have a few point margin lead in the national polls heading into election day, at which point the GOTV effort becomes the major factor.

But right now, I do not expect McCain to close that gap in the following week. Monday and Tuesday's news cycles will likely have continuing stories on McCain's "I hate Barack Obama" rallies, in addition to the new Alaska State Legislature report that shows Sarah Palin abused her authority while in office (Maverick!)

Wednesday's debate may be the last real public opportunity for John McCain to turn things around with his campaign. It's on domestic issues, moderated by Bob Schieffer, and will ideally have a similar format to the first debate, which was arguably the best in many election cycles. But as we've seen, the debate may just prove to be another point for Obama to expand his lead.

There are three likely results to come out of the third and final debate:

- It's a "draw," with neither candidate gaining ground in polling due to the debates. McCain's next move is uncertain.

- McCain shows real initiative on economic issues while Obama doesn't, giving his campaign an opening to actually TALK about the financial crisis, rather than just Bill Ayers.

- Obama sounds and looks better than McCain on the economy, forcing Senator Maverick to play the same character attack games he's been playing the past week.

I anticipate the 1st and 3rd scenarios being the most likely. McCain may divert to his attacks of Obama as a liberal tax and spender, which hasn't really worked the first two debates. I doubt he'll mention earmarks again, which can only work to his benefit.

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UPDATE:

Politico is reporting that McCain's next tactic will be specific new measures designed to help the flailing economy (see: tax cuts). I predict he'll be using the phrase "middle class" more in the third debate. I suppose we'll see how this one works out for the Arizona Senator.

Cough, Cough

2008-10-10T15:33:00.000-07:00

I've been sick recently, hence the no updates. I'll be back tomorrow.

Quotes of the day:

"You don't have to be scared of [Obama]." - John McCain

Really...It's come to THIS, John?

Also:

"My jury is out on whether or not [Sarah Palin] is intelligent." - Buffalo Right-Wing Hack Tom Baurele

When ol' Tom starts firing up quotes like these, you know the Republicans are in trouble.

Reflections II

2008-10-07T22:16:00.000-07:00

As Markos has said after every debate that's been held, thank God for the insta-polls and nightly polls that are taken to reflect how the public viewed the debate. We don't need the pundits to explain for us, and people are allowed to react instantly -- unfiltered through the media.

That said, it's a good time to be an Obama supporter, at least when it comes to debates. Barack's outperformed McCain in both of the contests, and Biden wiped the floor with Palin. With just one debate left next week, McCain is running out of chances he has to create a "game changer" moment.

The one moment McCain may regret tonight is his "That One" -- an attack that looked non-Presidential, and was probably pulled right out of a stump speech. But not everything transfers from the rally to the debate stage.

I thought the debate was a tie, myself. But when one candidate has a 5-8 point lead, a tie is good enough for a win. For all the extreme negative attacks McCain's campaign has been putting forth lately on Ayers, on Obama's alleged naivete, and that he doesn't "get it," not to mention McCain inquiring "Just who is the REAL Barack Obama?" (straight out of a bigoted smear e-mail) -- For all of these attacks, McCain was tame tonight, as I expected. He didn't take the gloves off, and he got visibly rattled about halfway through the debate, right after Obama nailed him for the "Bomb Iran" joke he told.

When McCain constantly starts using the phrase "My friends," especially in the singular "my friend" to address someone specifically, you know he's mad. And that interval was probably the worst moment for him tonight. His jokes fell flat, and he's got to be the last person on earth that cares about earmarks right now in the wake of the Dow Jones dropping 500+ points today.

On health care, it's just a fundamental difference -- I hate that term -- between McCain and Obama. McCain thinks it's a responsibility, and maybe it is, but the people responsible have failed. Barack Obama's got it -- health care is a right. And independent voters feel the same way.

The biggest loser tonight was Tom Brokaw. What an ass. I predict an SNL parody of him on Saturday.

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So what comes next for the two campaigns? McCain is making one last push next week for offense -- campaigning in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Obama continues on offense too, pushing hard in North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. Pay attention to the candidates schedules -- if McCain and Palin start making constant stops in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada --- then you can bet they're trying to avoid electoral embarrassment.

Voter registration numbers are starting to come in, as well. Check out The Field for some great information on Pennsylvania numbers.

A lot more to come this week -- stay tuned and keep reading.

What To Look For (II)

2008-10-07T09:43:00.000-07:00

The second Presidential debate tonight in Nashville, TN. Tom Brokaw has been reported to have not fully agreed to what the campaigns wanted – no follow-up questions. Knowing Brokaw’s tilt, he’ll probably throw in a few questions about Obama’s ties to radical terrorists.

The debate tonight will have a much lower viewership, I reckon. Number of people watching was lower than expected for the 1st, higher for the VP debates, and historically the numbers go down for the 2nd and 3rd debates. I anticipate a high number of people watching in the beginning, but turning it off relatively quickly. Whoever has a stronger performance early on I think will come off better in the eyes of a lot of people who tune in.

In regards to the content of the debate itself – that’s what this entry is about. The McCain campaign has stepped up attacks in recent stays – with McCain using the line “Who is the REAL Barack Obama?” and Sarah Palin using the line “palling around with terrorists.”

The media has not ignored this – there’s been constant attention paid to this (slight) change of attitude – negative to super negative – in McCain’s camp. I think tonight, the Arizona Senator will shift back to a more hopeful, reformer tone, with carefully placed attacks on Obama. I expect these attacks to be sharp, though. Biting, even. McCain knows what his options are right now, and he knows the path that has been decided on.

This isn’t to say Obama hasn’t been negative, as well. But I think we’re not used to seeing a Democrat actually counter-attack when it comes to these things. Kerry ignored the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth attacks, and look where it got him.

It’s also clear that McCain’s connections to the Keating 5 were brought up by Obama’s camp as retaliation to the Ayers thing. They seem willing to play the “guilt by association” game, believing that there are just as many skeletons for McCain as there is for Obama.

The debate will not change the current polling situation – McCain’s numbers will not shoot up in all the tracking polls after tonight barring a major gaffe, and vice versa for Obama.

Expect a cool, composed attitude from Obama – he’ll likely not be too negative unless provoked by McCain, or if the question calls for it. He’s leading in the polls, and he just wants to maintain his lead. His campaign will not be changing their strategy right now unless McCain starts to gain in the polls (and you better believe they’re watching the polls closely).

While I personally expect McCain to tone down the negativity tonight, he might not. He may just stick to the path he’s chosen, truly believing the only way for him to win (and this might be true) is to make people doubt Obama; make people question his “readiness” to lead just one last time, via his connections to Ayers, Wright, and “foreign donors” with Arabic names.

The Wright Stuff

2008-10-06T09:43:00.000-07:00

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I said to start expecting the Ayers and Wright attacks. Although there was some speculation that McCain would lay off TV ads featuring the Good Reverend, that notion has rapidly disintegrated in the wake of recent cringe-inducers from Sarah Palin:

"He's out there palling around with terrorists..."

"I guess, because he didn’t get up and leave — to me, that does say something about character..."

Whether or not Sarah Palin has McCain's approval for mentioning Wright is irrelevant, because just bringing up the guy's name will create media attention. The final phase of McCain's campaign is beginning, and it's going to be an ugly next month, as Obama has already shown that he will retaliate with attacks on the Keating 5 associations.

There's a difference this time around, though. The first time the Ayers and Wright attacks were being talked about, it was actual news, being driven by the media's non-stop discussion. Same goes with Ayers, when Hillary Clinton bizarrely made Obama "reject AND denounce" his association with him.

This time, Ayers and Wright will not be news in and of themselves, but because the McCain campaign is choosing to bring the issue up. The attacks will not be reported the same way they were during the primaries -- it will likely be reported as the McCain campaign choosing to take the low road. For this reason alone, the attacks have a chance to backfire.

The economy is still struggling, and voters -- even those unsure about Obama, may be turned off by McCain trying to make the discussion about guilt by association, rather than how he will help families and individuals struggling financially.

I expect the race to tighten before November 4th, but I don't expect the end result to change -- for now.

Track and Field

2008-10-03T08:50:00.001-07:00

Some people have asked me about national polls in the Presidential Election as opposed to state polling. I tell them don't give yourself the headache, it's not worth it.

One thing that is becoming more prominent in national elections though are tracking polls. These are polls taken usually over a 3-day period, sometimes longer, with a rolling average that is updated on a consistent basis.

There are currently four major national, reputable tracking polls (IMO):

- Gallup Daily (+5)
- Rasmussen Daily (+6)
- Research 2000 (+10)
- Diageo/Hotline (+5)

Diageo is the only one of these that does their tracking samples at night. All of them are updated on a daily basis. The current Obama lead totals are in the parenthesis, with R2K being a bit out of an outlier, perhaps. But what's important to note is that all of these polls are using different ideas of who they believe "likely voters" are. R2K has more independents, Gallup and Rasmussen typically put more people in the Democratic and Republican categories, with less independents.

And, it took me a little bit of time to stop worrying about the actual numbers. Because the numbers matter a little, but what you're looking for is trends in the numbers. If all the polls I mentioned above have a 1 point loss for Obama, and some kind of a gain for McCain all in the same day, they'll still all be different numbers. You won't know which one is most accurate, but you WILL know that there's some kind of a drop in support for Obama, and some kind of gain for McCain. That much is clear, and it makes it easier to pinpoint what kind of an event within the campaign is causing voters to lean one way or the other. Only in the final week of a campaign would I say start to really pay attention to the numbers. If McCain is still 5 points behind a week from November 4th, then his camp is in trouble.

The problem with tracking polls is that it's been proven before, and again this election cycle, is that companies change their demographic samples at will. Gallup's done it as recently as about a month ago, so you never know exactly how consistent their idea of "likely voters" is.

An even bigger problem with this election cycle is that there's bound to be increased turnout among minorities and the youth vote. But by how much? That's where pollsters can guess, but in reality, no one will know until election day. New voters favor Obama, but how many of them will vote?

Another problem that can come up in national polls is the concentration of support for one candidate in a particular region. For example, Obama in the Northeast, and McCain in the Southeast, that may tend to overinflate one's national numbers.

This can be verified by state polling. Obama's national numbers shot up this week, and evetually, the state polling followed suit. What we're seeing now are polls where Obama is competitive in North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia -- all Bush-voting states in 2000 and 2004. If McCain starts to crawl back in national polling and manages to tie it, expect numbers in state polling to head back McCain's way for places like Florida and North Carolina.

Reflections

2008-10-03T08:06:00.001-07:00

In a way, you could argue that both candidates won last night. Palin appeared nervous at first (and rushed through her scripted talking points throughout the night), but gained confidence as time went on. Both Biden and Palin probably shored up some of their "leaning to but undecided voters" last night, which was ultimately the goal.

Focus groups from different outlets were split, with Biden turning in an exceptional performance -- better than expected. He was strongest at the beginning and towards the end, and especially when he had a genuine, emotional moment talking about how he knows what it's like to have to raise two kids alone, and to wonder if one of your children might not make it.

Palin survived. That was the goal. The expectations for her were set so low that really, there was no way she couldn't have exceeded them. But people's notions about her are already conceived, and you can expect the McCain campaign to keep her away from the press 100% now. Back to the undisclosed bunker, with her only public appearences being campaign rallies to keep the base fired up. McCain's camp doesn't want any more Couric moments, with Palin stumbling on follow-up questions. They want to be Palin's debate moments the last thing undecided voters see when it comes to her.

Ultimately, the VP debate won't change too many things. The discussion today, as it should, goes back to the House of Reps, and whether or not the Democrats caving in to the demand of "tax cuts! tax cuts!" as an addition to the barely-amended Paulson bill will allow it to pass.

The attention should now go back to the top of the ticket, which is good news for the Obama campaign, as McCain hasn't exactly had the greatest week. Polls are showing Barack starting to be competitive in North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia. People are starting to become more comfortable with the idea of a "President Obama." Biden surely helped last night, and Obama's performance in the first debate definitely helped too.

___________________________________

This will most likely result in the next phase of McCain's campaign, and, 31 days away from the election, perhaps the final one: Turning the attention and tide away from the economic situation -- where McCain is struggling badly, and back to Obama himself; trying to make people doubt his readiness. Expect the Ayers ads, expect the Reverend Wright ads, and expect McCain's entire argument to shift back to questioning Obama's judgment and experience. Maybe even being a little condescending.

"You don't say that out loud!"

The problem, however, is that these are not new cards being played against Barack. All summer, McCain's attacks were on experience. Hillary Clinton tried it. It's been proven this election cycle that it doesn't work, so I don't know how McCain is going to be able to twist it enough, or to put such extreme doubts in voters minds, that he winds up having an edge in the tossup battleground states like Colorado, New Mexico, or Virginia.

Michi-gone

2008-10-02T11:41:00.000-07:00

Originally reported on Politico:

John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play.

McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states.

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This is big news, because Michigan was one of the only states which Kerry won (besides New Hampshire) that he had a legitimate shot at taking. The recent polling out of Michigan must have been disappointing enough to the McCain campaign that they no longer consider their chances viable their. This is further backed up by a canceled campaign appearance next week in Plymouth, MI.

McCain's money would likely be better going to other states, but I was one of the firm proponents that Michigan was really the only chance McCain had at changing the political map. His only chance now is New Hampshire, which would offset a New Mexico win for Obama, but definitely NOT offset anything like a Colorado win, or a Virginia win for the O-campaign.

What To Look For

2008-10-02T09:13:00.000-07:00

Former Alaska Independent gubernatorial candidate, Andrew Halcro:

"You really have to have a high level of respect for Gov. Palin in the sense that she has this real ability to connect with people. And suddenly people don't think about health care, they don't think about the economy, they don't think about whatever else, education," said Halcro, a self-described wonk. "It's not about the policy. It's about the person."

Listen closely tonight at Palin's answers in the debate -- She may have improved on her ability to transition from the actual question into talking points, but I doubt she suddenly inherited the gift of real substance in a matter of weeks.

It's like when a pundit asked McCain about her experience in the field of national security. His answer? "She knows more about energy than anyone in America..."

GOD DAMN AMERICA

2008-10-01T20:08:00.000-07:00

I've been talking with folks lately about the odds of a big ad buy in all the battleground states featuring Jeremiah Wright. I, of course, am of the belief that there will inevitably be these ads --- the question is where will the funding come from?

There is no doubt that McCain's own campaign won't be buying these ads. Maybe the Republican National Committee. Probably a 527 group -- but which 527 would produce such an ad and have the funds to do it? There is no Swiftboating Equivalent of 2008. Jerome Corsi was shut down by Obama's campaign.

More importantly, would trying to return the media coverage back to Jeremiah Wright backfire completely, especially with so many more pressing issue at hand? I'd like to think so.

"Debate"

2008-10-01T08:46:00.000-07:00

Ben Smiths reports:

"A time honored pre-debate tradition -- try to raise doubts about the moderator."

Gwen Ifill is not my ideal choice to be Moderator of ANY debate. Look at 2004, where Cheney slammed Edwards pretty hard (The University of Buffalo almost held a rematch of that debate with Rove filling the role of Cheney until Edwards was forced to cancel).

But part of that reason is because Ifill's questions, a portion of the time, were loaded against the Democrat. In one question she took a policy position from the Kerry-Edwards ticket, and after going over it finished the question with a statement, pointing out: "isn't that kind of naive?" It's not the role of the debate moderator to infer their own opinion of a certain policy. A question like that immediately puts the candidate on the defensive, and makes them look weak. It's absurd. It's like Fox News always saying "SOME people say this, this, and that." Really?

What Republicans are doing now is trying to establish something to fall back on in case Palin does poorly on Thursday, i.e the notion that the moderator will not be impartial. Yes, Gwen Ifill is releasing a book on the history of Obama's campaign in 2009. But she has not hid this from the public. It's been readily available to view on the Amazon website, and she's mentioned in recent interviews. So why would this be an issue...36 hours before the debate?

GOTCHA (on Sarah Palin, Part 2)

2008-09-30T10:31:00.000-07:00

Katie Couric sure is getting more attention than usual these days, isn't she?

In the light of several sources saying that an additional part from the Palin-Couric interview (which has not yet been aired) contains footage of Palin being unable to name a single supreme court case other than Roe v Wade that she disagrees with, John McCain went to babysit Palin at their first ever joint interview held the other night. I watched it on the CBS Evening News, and I wasn't too impressed.

When Couric brought up the recent video footage of Palin essentially agreeing with one of Obama's foreign policy plans (albeit it was outside of a bar and the guy just yelled the question into a crowd and she just gave the standard "sure! whatever guy!" response), McCain and Palin both started to decry "Gotcha!" journalism, made famous by Buffalo's own Tim Russert.

I agree that journalism of the Gotcha variety needs to go. It's useless and stupid, and attacking the press can always be a sure fire way to rally up some of your base. But really, this ultimately rests on McCain's shoulders and his main strategist, Steve Schmidt. They were the ones who sheltered Palin from the media, refused interviews, and had a closed-door session where she met with foreign leaders and had to put up with sexist remarks from the President of Afghanistan.

I never thought I'd find myself agreeing with Mitt Romney, but he was right in his assertion that it was a big mistake for McCain to withhold Palin from the media and try to stuff her with facts ----- all so 2 or 3 interviews could be put under the microscope. And she bombed the interviews.

Even if she had messed up on a whole bunch of interviews, you wouldn't have attracted such serious doubt from the media if you hadn't so obviously made it clear that she was unprepared and not ready. People wouldn't have already formed a preconceived notion of her that she's not very knowledgeable about important, national issues.

If McCain loses the election, this will be one (of many) reasons it happened.

On Sarah Palin, Part 1

2008-09-28T19:08:00.000-07:00

This is the first half of my own thoughts on Governor Palin, the Vice-Presidential nominee for John McCain. There's no doubt that she's had a huge impact on the way this race has been run.
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Nate over at 538 is probably one of the nation's foremost experts when it comes to analyzing polls. Today, he talks about the charge that some Republican strategists and kooky journalists have called for -- the resignation of Sarah Palin as VP, giving John a chance to replace her with somebody who actually knows about things outside Alaska.

He explains, however, that this would be a disaster in and of itself. It happened to Eagleton in 1972, but it wont happen again. Here's why -- using his list, but with my own explanations:

1) Destroys Base Enthusiasm: The only reason McCain jumped to a lead in the polls after his convention was because of how energetic his base became that he selected one of their own as his runningmate. Rush loved her, Hannity loved her, and the local Buffalo dittoheads Tom Baurele and Sandy Beach just thought she was the bees' knees!

Since Palin was not vetted by the Arizona Senator himself, which left Democratic activists left to do the dirty work. The information they found was damning enough, but her recent interviews with Gibson and Couric have proven what Republicans feared -- her lack of experience and knowledge in national and international issues was a killer.

Despite her recent slip in the polls with independents (which, as I've argued, could be recovered somewhat with a good debate performance on Thursday), she is the reason McCain is unlikely to slip below the 45% threshold in national results. The base loves her, and they will continue to love her. It'd be political suicide for him to get rid of her because of this reason alone.

2) No obvious alternative

Tim Pawlenty is a rather dull, unknown Governor from the Midwest who's best known outside of Minnesota for vetoing bills to promote infrastructure in the state before the collapse of that Minneapolis Bridge.

Mitt Romney could give the campaign funds, but between McCain himself and the RNC, he doesn't need any more funds. He's also recognized as a bit of a "two face" even among Republicans. Still, the base seems to respect him. Independents would loathe him.

3) McCain has Overplayed his "Game Changer" card.

Ain't this the truth. I never really considered this before Nate mentioned it, but it makes sense. McCain runs the risk of his campaign being seen as something of a joke if he keeps pulling big stunts that are intended to "shake things up," not unlike he and Palin are supposed to do to Washington.

___________________________________________________________

So we can safely assume that Palin won't be dropped from the ticket. Which is all for the better, as SNL hasn't had this good material in years. I talked in a previous entry about debate expectations for Palin, and it's fascinating. If you look at videos showing her time in the Alaskan gubernatorial debates, she's quick witted, a fast speaker, on point, and confident. All traits she has not exuded in her recent interviews. The black-helicopter conspiracy theories will say that the "dumb" thing has all been an act. She's secretly a brilliant debater! She'll make Biden look like a fool!

I'm sorry to all black helicopters out there, but it just isn't true. In these debates, Palin is talking about what she knows and what she is comfortable with: Alaskan policies and social issues. Get this woman going on abortion, the role of faith and religion in government, stem cell research, or Alaskan oil pipelines and earmarks, and she may dazzle you.

But that, setting aside 1 or 2 questions, is not what will be debated on Thursday. Instead, Gwen Ifill may bring up Palin's last ridiculous statements, which will cause her to defend these statements, and make her judgment sound even more questionable. Topics may also include national security, the role of the federal government in Wall Street, and energy policy. She's not shown any expertise in these subjects so far, and I doubt McCain's master plan involves waiting until the VP debates to let her loose.

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Governor Palin will have to do more than "look good" at the debates on Thursday. She will have to be so good that people who have already formed an opinion of her will take a deep breath, and say to themselves "What was I thinking? This woman actually IS ready to lead the country alongside McCain." That won't be easy to do.

Face The Nation

2008-09-28T07:47:00.001-07:00

On Barack Obama's appearance just recently:

I felt like Bob Schieffer threw Barack some softballs, but it was still a very good interview for the Illinois Senator. He really felt comfortable during the talk about the financial bailout package, which officially came to a verbal compromise late last night (nothing on paper yet).

The package still appears to be $700B, but it will be phased in with an initial offering of $350B, and other installments to be approved by congress. It also seems to feature "reasonable" limits on executive compensation, protection for homeowners facing foreclosure, encouragement of banks to buy "insurance" for future catastrophes at the insistence of congressional Republicans, and (per the NY Times):

The White House also agreed to strict oversight of the program by a Congressional panel and conflict-of-interest rules for firms hired by the Treasury to help run the program.

Barack Obama emphasized on Face the Nation that these were all provisions (with the exception of the insurance) that he called for, that he had been working on the phone with 2 weeks talking to Paulson and Congressional Democrats trying to help work out a deal, and that John McCain had nothing to do with getting this bill passed.

If the public doesn't reject this plan, Obama could really take hold of it, and slam McCain on the ridiculousness of how "suspended" his campaign to try and solve this crisis, and then..didn't end up doing anything.

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Politically, McCain has thrown a few hail marys. The selection of Palin, and notion of suspending his campaign and postponing the debates being the main two. He could very well oppose this bailout, try to "buck the system" against Bush and the House Republicans, and make some plea to the American people that Obama is dead wrong on this.

Like any hail mary, that would have a chance to work. Polling has stabilized with the dualing opinions of the reality that congress needs to do SOMETHING, but at the same time the public being uncomfortable with Wall Street getting hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money. It will be a challenge for Obama to articulate why a plan would be necessary if McCain decides to take the risky position of opposing it.

McCain Wins Something

2008-09-27T22:22:00.000-07:00

On Friday, before the debate even happened, some keen eyes noted an ad (paid for by McCain-Palin '08) with a grinning John McCain in front of a colorful American Flag background, with the Optima Bold font in big white letters reading "McCain WINS DEBATE!"

Note, this was several hours before the debate was scheduled, essentially proving that for all of Senator McCain's urgency on attending to the financial crisis and consider "postponing the debate" was a complete hoax.

During the debate, despite the URGENCY OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, McCain didn't even really talk about the bailout package. He just railed against earmarks, earmarks, earmarks. Which is fine. If you really hate earmarks.

And today, when he went back to Washington to help some more with the bailout package, his campaign announced that he would be mostly "working from his office" rather than actually heading into the fray on Capitol Hill.

Guess it doesn't seem so urgent anymore, now that there isn't a debate to postpone.

Well, maybe the VP debate.

2008-09-27T14:50:00.000-07:00

First post. Let's see how long I actually update this for.
__________________________________________________________

I think the Thursday Vice-Presidential debates will garner higher ratings than the Prez ones. That might be a first. The bar has been set extremely low for Palin -- even by myself, I'll admit. Her ability for any extemporaneous speaking has been revealed (there is none). On the other hand, her tendency to espouse quirky one-liners and folksy Alaskan sayings is excellent. She uses "reform" a lot, but it makes for good soundbites.

She also has a tendency to ramble on with bullshit when she is nervous or unsure of the subject. John McCain called her the nation's foremost expert on energy. Really? Here's a video courtesy of the Jed Report:

You're kidding yourself if you don't believe there isn't a possibility for this kind of an event on Thursday. I've said to other people I think one of Joe Biden's concerns should be not appearing too condescending towards Palin. There's another first when presidential debating is concerned.

Let it be known: Sarah Palin is no fool. She got elected to the highest office in Alaska, and she's performed well at debates before against more seasoned Alaskan politicos. So there is the potential for her to exceed expectations (actually, that's almost certain when more individuals associate you with moose hunting than policy). But in the 2 big interviews she's done so far, Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric, she's blown them. If Palin's talking points sound forced, if she can't answer follow up questions, or if she rambles on, it will probably hurt McCain.

Whatever the outcome is, I'm looking forward to it. Polls are showing that independents and non-evangelical voters are starting to get turned off by Palin. She has a chance to redeem herself on Thursday and help put this race back into McCain's favor.